USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll

Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election

Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes played a key role in Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the state since 1984. The outcome suggests a re-alignment in the American electorate, especially in more rural areas of the state that have previously been more supportive of Democratic candidates. Conventional political wisdom went out the window in the election, as did the accuracy of public-opinion polls.
 
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election

The Same River Twice: Election Polling Challenged By Accurate Sampling

Kristin Runge
UW-Extension
The 2016 presidential election results took many people of all political stripes by surprise. It will be a while before it is fully understood why figures released by many reputable state and national polls were off, some by a wide margin. Until then, history may offer some potential explanations.
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election

The Same River Twice: Getting Voter Poll Questions Right

Kristin Runge
UW-Extension
In 1948, four national polling firms infamously predicted that Thomas Dewey would win the presidential election by a comfortable 5 to 15 percentage points rather than the 4.4 percentage point victory won by President Harry Truman. This error brought the young polling industry to its knees.
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election

Parsing Faulty Polls And Scapegoating In The 2016 Election

Scott Gordon
WisContext
In the world of political polling, the Marquette University Law School Poll is considered the best in Wisconsin. When a new poll is released with a new round of results, political journalists across the state avidly follow it and tweet it out point-by-point.
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election
Series: UW Applied Population Lab: Wisconsin's Demographics

How And Where Trump Won Wisconsin in 2016

Malia Jones
UW Applied Population Lab
Donald Trump's presidential victory in Wisconsin, the first time a Republican candidate has won the state's electoral votes since 1984, was the result of a complex shift in voting patterns in counties both large and small.
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election
Series: Wisconsin's Diverse Waves Of Immigration

Central Wisconsin's Hispanic Community Ponders Future In Wake Of Trump's Election

Scott Gordon
WisContext
Immigration and diversity are very much rural issues in Wisconsin. Some of Wisconsin's ethnic and racial minority groups are clustered in specific geographic areaa, but Hispanic people are widely distributed across much of the state.
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election
Series: Wisconsin's Diverse Waves Of Immigration

For Latin Americans In Small-Town Wisconsin, Little Shock At Trump Victory

Glen Moberg
Wisconsin Public Radio
In the rural Wisconsin city of Abbotsford, on the border of Marathon and Clark counties in the middle of the state, about 500 of 2,300 residents are Latino, drawn there to work on the dairy farms, in the factories, and at one of the region's big employers, the Abbyland Foods meat processing company.
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election

Why 13 Counties All Over Wisconsin Voted Multiple Times For Both Parties Since 2008

Chris Bumbaca
The Observatory
Thirteen counties across the state of Wisconsin have flip-flopped over the last eight years and played a key role in securing Donald Trump's victory in the state.
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election

Perceptions Of Who Is Deserving, Disenfranchised Reshaped Wisconsin Politics

Samantha Nash
PBS Wisconsin
Political discontent in rural areas of the U.S. is regularly cited as a major factor in Donald Trump’s victory and Congressional and statehouse gains by other Republican candidates in the 2016 elections.
Series: Wisconsin In The 2016 Presidential Election

Economic Pessimism Among Rural Voters Isn't Clear-Cut In Marquette Poll

Scott Gordon
WisContext
Poll responses from self-identified rural voters about the economy and Donald Trump poke holes in the narrative of his victory as an uprising in so-called flyover country.